Gold Prices Retreat from Highs
Beijing time on November 25th (Monday), data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed a decline in U.S. economic activity in October. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which covers 85 economic indicators, reported -0.4 in October, compared to -0.27 in September; an index below zero indicates that national economic growth is below trend levels, signaling a reduction in future inflationary pressures. Out of the 85 monthly individual indicators, 30 contributed positively, while 55 contributed negatively.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated on Monday, "I believe the federal funds rate will continue to decline unless there is some compelling evidence of economic overheating." Goolsbee said that he expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, moving towards a stance that neither restricts nor promotes economic activity. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also indicated that it is reasonable to consider a rate cut next month.
On Tuesday (Beijing time, November 27th, 03:00), the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting. At the November meeting, policymakers lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, following a 50 basis point cut in September. The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day interest rate meeting on December 17th and 18th.
Advertisement
The interest rate outlook of the Federal Reserve is once again in focus. Investors will be watching the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October, which will be released on Wednesday, as it is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator.
U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday and will close early on Friday, so trading volumes this week may be light, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting will also be released before Thanksgiving.
In terms of geopolitics, several Israeli media outlets reported on November 25th local time that Israel's National Security Cabinet will meet on the 26th to approve a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Deputy Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Elias Bou Saab told Lebanese media on the same day that the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel is expected to be announced "within the next few hours or days." However, he also emphasized the need for caution, given past experiences dealing with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar said on November 25th at his party meeting that the prospects for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon "depend on implementation." Saar stated that regarding implementation, there are two key points for Lebanon, "one is to prevent Hezbollah from moving south across the Litani River, and the other is to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its forces and rearming throughout Lebanon."
Affected by the potential达成 of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, international gold prices ended their five-day winning streak with a significant pullback from highs, with New York gold futures closing at $2626.4 per ounce, down 3.38%; London spot gold prices closed at $2624.645 per ounce, down 3.36%.
On Monday, the U.S. dollar fell from its highs, with most non-U.S. currencies strengthening, but on Tuesday, the U.S. dollar recovered its losses in the Asian morning session, and non-U.S. currencies weakened again, with the Chinese yuan reaching a new low in the Asian morning session, with the latest data showing that the offshore yuan depreciated by 246 basis points,报价7.2704.
Technically, New York gold futures prices ended their five-day winning streak, pulling back significantly after breaking through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands indicator and combining with the previous pullback K-line combination, the overall pattern is expected to enter an adjustment period in the middle of a larger uptrend, but the short-term price is still above the strong position of $2600 per ounce, and the trend of fluctuating upward has not completely ended.
In summary, under the influence of the potential expected ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, market risk aversion has cooled, and international gold prices have pulled back technically from highs. From an overall pattern perspective, it is possible to enter an adjustment period in the middle of a larger uptrend, but the short-term price is still above the strong position of $2600 per ounce, and further validation is needed later; in the medium to long term, with central banks led by the Federal Reserve already entering a rate-cutting cycle, coupled with the irreversible trend of global debt monetization, and the acceleration of deglobalization in the 2.0 era, the global political and economic landscape still faces significant uncertainty, and we believe that gold is still in an uptrend in the larger cycle.