Why Gold, Silver, and Oil Prices Plunge?
U.S. stocks have recently fluctuated upwards, with a broad rally in the three major indices today. The Dow Jones has already broken through the previous high-pressure position, setting a historical record. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also on the rise, approaching their highest points. The short-term market is dominated by festive optimism, with a high probability of more gains than losses.
China's Golden Dragon Index (Chinese concept stocks) has recently fluctuated downwards, and has recently stopped falling and consolidated. Today, there was a slight rebound, but it did not break through the downtrend line, and it is still uncertain whether it will rebound from here.
Gold futures have been fluctuating upwards, and have recently experienced a significant pullback. In the past few days, they have stopped falling and rebounded, forming a "V" reversal pattern. However, in the past two days, influenced by the easing of geopolitical tensions, they have suddenly fallen sharply, and have not yet broken through the previous low. If they do, there is still a significant downside space.
Silver futures are similar to gold, with a significant pullback in the near term, falling to the uptrend line and rebounding at this support level, showing signs of stopping the decline. In the past two days, they have suddenly fallen sharply again, breaking through the uptrend line once more, and are currently near the previous low support level. If they break through, it could form a head and shoulders top pattern, which could lead to a larger downside space. Looking at the weekly K-line trend, it has not yet broken through the medium to long-term uptrend line; if it does, then the current trend is over.
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Crude oil futures have recently pulled back, falling near the key lowest support level and rebounding. In the past few days, they have already broken through the downtrend line, showing signs of stopping the decline and rebounding, but ultimately they were blocked by the previous high-pressure position and fell back into the downtrend today. Oil and gas have recently stopped falling and rebounded, with several consecutive days of rising to the key pressure position, and fell significantly today, once again blocked and pulled back.
Related information - Wall Street closes higher; small-cap stocks hit record highs after Besent nomination
Wall Street's main stock indexes closed higher on Monday, with the small-cap Russell 2000 index hitting a record high, following the nomination of Scott Besent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, which pushed bond yields lower. Focus also turned to the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, which pushed down oil prices and dragged the energy index down by 2%.
His candidate was announced later on Friday, ending weeks of speculation, and some investment strategists said that Besent might take measures to limit further government borrowing, even if he adheres to fiscal and trade campaign promises.
Besent's nomination has eased some fiscal concerns about the possible implementation of new tariffs, which had pushed up bond yields before the election.
James Reilly, a senior market economist at Capital Economics' market department, said: "This time, the focus is on tariff policy - especially now that Scott Besent has been chosen as Treasury Secretary, which seems to have eased significant fiscal concerns."
According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 index rose by 17.81 points, closing at 5,987.15 points, up 0.30%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 51.50 points, closing at 19,055.15 points, up 0.27%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 439.02 points, closing at 44,735.53 points, up 0.99%.
The ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks on the New York Stock Exchange was 3.01:1. A total of 836 stocks hit new highs on the New York Stock Exchange, and 40 stocks hit new lows.
The small-cap index hit a historical intraday high of 2,466.49 points, surpassing the record level three years ago, and U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with yields on 30-year bonds falling across the board.
Adam Sarhan, CEO of New York 50 Park Investments, said: "Areas that have lagged behind for most of the year, such as small and mid-cap stocks, have begun to outperform the broader market, also due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts."
There is hope to fulfill its pro-business policy promises, which is the latest good news for small-cap companies. They have been in the spotlight since the Federal Reserve began the monetary policy easing cycle in September.
The decline in yields has helped the rate-sensitive real estate sector rise, and the housing index has also soared by 4.5%.
Barclays (LON:BARC) has raised its full-year forecast for the S&P 500 index for 2025, while Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) has set a target of reaching 7,000 points by the end of 2025.
However, there are still concerns that inflationary pressures may soar and slow the pace of the Federal Reserve's policy easing.
Investors have recently wavered between expectations of a pause in rate hikes and further rate cuts at the Federal Reserve's December meeting. The FedWatch tool from the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) shows a 56.2% chance of the central bank cutting rates by another 25 basis points.
Consumer discretionary stocks led the sector, with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) rising 2.2%.
The personal consumption expenditure report, the central bank's preferred inflation indicator, will be in focus for investors later this week, including during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Macy's fell 2.2% after the department store operator delayed the release of its third-quarter results due to accounting issues.
Bath & Body Works raised its full-year adjusted profit outlook, driving the retailer's stock price up 16.5%.
The S&P 500 index hit 106 new 52-week highs, with no new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite Index hit 352 new highs and 66 new lows.
Trading volume at U.S. exchanges was 16.69 billion shares, compared to an average of 14.93 billion shares over the past 20 trading days.