A-Share Dilemma: Individual Investors Confused Today
Friends, today the A-share market has withstood a test, why do I say that?
On one hand, after the rebound from yesterday's bottom, today's market index did not continue to plummet;
On the other hand, the news of additional tariffs before the market today did not cause the market to collapse, which indicates that the market's risk appetite is also strengthening;
However, judging from the market's performance in the morning, the overall trend may still not meet everyone's expectations, especially making many retail investors feel entangled. Next, I will analyze the overall performance of today's market:
1. Today's A-share market has left retail investors somewhat entangled, and these market changes are key:
Observing the market over the past two days, many people are entangled today because although there was a rebound yesterday, the effect of individual stock increases was quite good;
Although today's market index is still mainly slightly rising, the number of rising and falling individual stocks is basically half, and the number of rising and falling stocks can well reflect the overall market sentiment.
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And the concerns caused by today's market performance are still quite significant:
First, today the market continues to shrink mainly. Many people are more worried about shrinkage, but I think the market is now at the bottom of the retracement of the shock phase, after the release of the volume down, the market wait-and-see and selling are more obvious, and turnover is low is also a normal performance.
3200 points near the shrinkage is not a big problem if the disk breaks through 3300 points, and then to 3400 points rebound to continue to shrink, then be careful, because on behalf of the funds to do more to attack the will is not very strong;
Second, the number of stocks that hit the daily limit down has further increased today. How to view this phenomenon?
After the market closed yesterday, I had already reminded everyone to pay attention to the significant differences in speculative stocks in the short term. Although there were nearly a hundred stocks that hit the daily limit this morning, there were about 30 stocks that hit the daily limit down, which indicates that some speculative stocks are making up for the fall at high levels, and the trend of capital flight is increasing.
The number of stocks hitting daily limit up and down
This indicator needs to be continuously tracked. For some friends who like to do short-term operations, they must remain vigilant. When it's time to cash in on some high-position stocks, they should do so. If some thematic concepts have been rising for a few days, don't be too ambitious to prevent further stops.
Third, there has been some switching in the market's sectors today, and the short-term main line is not clear, which makes retail investors quite entangled.
The varieties that led the increase yesterday have all been adjusted today, and today is mainly a rebound of超跌 blue chips such as big finance, big consumption, and medicine.
Of course, the stocks that have rebounded well in these sectors are basically small-cap stocks. However, the sector rotation in the past two days has been very fast, which leads to a weak sense of participation among retail investors, because when the main line is not clear, more operations may lead to more mistakes.
Therefore, judging from these changes in today's market, many people will choose to quietly observe. I think that since it is now the bottom rebound repair stage, it is necessary for everyone to be clear about what they want.
First, pay attention to the switch between high and low. During this period, although the index has adjusted, many speculative stocks have risen in groups. If the index rebounds and rises in the future, speculative stocks may make up for the fall;
Second, institutional stocks have not performed strongly during this period, but judging from today's market style, some institutional directions have begun to rebound and repair, with consumption and medicine being the focus. At this time, if you hold value blue chips, you might as well wait a bit longer.
The market confidence is insufficient now, and it needs institutions to stand out to stabilize the index. In addition, as the year-end approaches, some institutions also need to manage their market value and the year-end institutional ranking, which may lead to the possibility of some low-position institutional sectors making up for the rise.
Therefore, on the one hand, high-position stocks can start to reduce their positions slowly, and on the other hand, institutional stocks at the bottom can be more confident to persist.
2. Institutions are rarely ahead, but they have also paid some price today. How to see the afternoon?
Judging from the trend of the market index this morning, after half an hour of opening, the white line of the market began to rebound upwards, which means that weight stocks began to lead the increase, and the sentiment of thematic stocks was suppressed.
The most obvious performance is the rise of big finance. The rise of finance, consumption, and medicine indicates that some institutions are lifting these to stabilize market sentiment. Compared with last Friday, when institutions smashed the big finance and caused market panic, today they lifted big finance again, which can almost indicate that institutions want to make retail investors who hold these stocks desperate.
When everyone cuts their meat at the bottom and leaves, institutions will slowly start to lift, which is something institutions often like to do.
Although it is said that the institutions are making a push, the institutions pull up no way to gain the trust of retail investors, so the money is not strong, the price to pay is the market shrinkage, and the field of money trading confidence is not enough.
This may form for today:
Index maintains a shock rise to close up, but today's individual stock profit effect will not be very good.
For the afternoon, I think it is not very likely that the market will dive sharply this afternoon. Even if there will be pressure to dive in the afternoon, it is expected that big finance will protect the plate and pull the index up.
At this time, many people are concerned that today's contraction to pull up the index is not a temptation.
I think that for some high-position stocks, even if institutions do not lift, the funds and speculative capital in these stocks may also rest.
But for some bottom consumption, medicine, machinery, finance, etc., the institutions here cannot allow the continuous decline to drag down the net value, and it is time to start thinking about how to repair it.
Because this week is the last week of November, speculative capital has been active for two months, will December start to tilt towards institutional style? This still needs to be mentally prepared in advance.
If this is the case, then the index may overall maintain shock within the range of 3200 to 3400 points, and the index risk will not be too great, but the pressure of speculation on small tickets will increase. After everyone gets used to speculation on small and poor, can they pay more attention to opportunities in some mid-cap stocks? For example, between 20 billion and 50 billion market value? Or between 10 billion and 30 billion? You can't always focus on below 10 billion market value.