The year 2025 has started on a positive note for the photovoltaic (PV) industry after a challenging 2024. Industry experts are cautiously optimistic about recent developments in pricing trends within the supply chain, marking a possible turnaroundAccording to InfoLink Consulting, a prominent renewable energy research organization, there have been noticeable rises in the prices of both silicon materials and solar cells in early January—a development that has been an uncommon sight amid the prevailing price drops seen over the past two years.

However, while the middle segment of the supply chain has experienced price hikes, the upstream and downstream sectors have not fared similarlyParticularly, the silicon material prices remain at a standstill at the low end, showing no significant changes over the past couple of monthsEven more troubling is the continued downward trend in the prices for solar modules, which are often regarded as key performance indicators of market momentum

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As of early January, module prices were still declining, even though there was a brief respite.

On January 8, InfoLink shared new insights into the pricing across the PV supply chain for 2025. Prices for silicon wafers and solar cells witnessed considerable increases compared to the end of December 2024. Yet, the prices for modules have still been in a downward spiral.

Focusing on silicon materials, InfoLink reported that the prices of dense and granular materials dropped to 39.5 yuan/kg and 36 yuan/kg, respectively, in late November to early December last yearAs of February 6, 2025, these prices remained unchanged, reflecting an approximately 40% decrease from early last year.

Interestingly, the dynamics of the silicon material market have not been as uneventful as the average prices suggestIn the weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year, a fierce negotiation atmosphere emerged

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The maximum and minimum transaction prices fluctuated as both upstream manufacturers and downstream silicon wafer producers grappled with pricing strategies.

InfoLink's analysis pointed out a significant divergence in the strategies deployed by upstream and downstream sectorsFollowing continuous production cuts in the latter half of 2024, silicon manufacturers have been increasingly reluctant to lower pricesMany downstream producers, however, already had substantial inventories and, factoring in the usual production halt during the New Year holiday, were disinclined to purchase silicon materials at elevated prices.

Furthermore, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's silicon division has noted that while silicon manufacturers have attempted to raise their quotes since December, the reaction from downstream entities has been tepidAlthough there has been a shift in inventory from upstream to downstream manufacturers, the overall stock levels remain significant, suggesting that price recovery will require time for inventory digestion.

Despite these challenges, there are burgeoning hopes for the silicon materials market post-New Year

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The combination of steady industry self-regulation, the launch of polysilicon futures, and replenishment of raw materials during the festive season may contribute to a favorable recovery in prices.

As for silicon wafers, supply-demand dynamics improved significantly due to production cuts and price controls, culminating in a promising start for 2025. According to InfoLink’s data published on January 8, the prices for various N-type silicon wafers jumped by over 10% compared to the end of DecemberThe upward trend persisted into the following week, especially for the 182*210mm N-type wafers.

However, the real market action has been muted due to the holiday season, where new orders generally pause, leaving expectations for post-holiday price movements optimistic but uncertainBy February 6, the average transaction price for 182-183.75mm P-type wafers was at 1.15 yuan per piece, reflecting a 42.5% drop since January of the previous year

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On the other hand, N-type wafers showed some resilience, with prices climbing by 12.38% year-to-date.

The rise in wafer prices inspired confidence among industry players that self-regulated production and improved supply-demand relations could effectively stimulate price reboundsHowever, as a segment caught between upstream and downstream, the trajectory of wafer prices is highly influenced by broader market trends, particularly the performance of silicon and modulesSo, if these sectors remain uncertain, the silicon wafer market could face its own challenges.

This year has been marked by significant anxiety as module prices continue to hover downward despite hopeful developments seen elsewhere in the supply chainComponents represent a crucial link in the photovoltaic industry landscape, yet throughout 2024, the price of single crystal PERC modules saw a steep decline of 28.42%, while N-type TOPCon modules experienced a similar drop of 29%. This drop has rendered many products’ trading prices below their cash cost lines, dramatically transforming a previously lucrative business into one marked by substantial losses.

In late December and early January, module prices persistently dropped

InfoLink’s January 8 figures reflected a continued decline, with the average trading price for single crystal PERC modules at 0.65 yuan/W—a 4.41% decrease since late DecemberAs production facilities began closing down for the holidays, transactions slowed, leaving subsequent price movements in a state of stagnation.

The recent data hints that this downturn may partly stem from pricing strategies adjusted by manufacturers aiming to meet shipment targets before year-endThus far in 2025, notable price changes in the module spot market have woefully lagged behind those in the silicon wafer and cell segments.

As we look forward to post-holiday market activity, expectations remain a mixed bagIn early February, auctions revealed that the average bidding price for module projects in Inner Mongolia remained below 0.7 yuan/WThis trend of low bidding reflects ongoing challenges for manufacturers

Conversely, Europe has exhibited signs of recovery in component prices, which could benefit export channels for PV firms.

Historically, most module production lines resume operations in mid to late February, with the following price dynamics attracting significant interestAccording to recent research, expectations for a rebound in module prices appear slow, heightening pressure for price increases amidst the upturn in silicon materials and cellsDiscrepancies in perspectives have emerged among different manufacturers, with smaller entities forecasting rising costs due to higher battery prices, while larger players focus on prevailing oversupply issues that hinder upward momentum.

Perhaps most critically, if module prices remain stagnant or continue to decline, the recent price increases observed in wafers and cells may falter as wellAs the lunar new year rolled in, leading solar companies began issuing their earnings projections for 2024. Over 20 companies indicated an impending combined loss of nearly 60 billion yuan, with industry giant Longi Green Energy estimating a staggering 8.2 to 8.8 billion yuan loss— a startling turnaround from previous years of robust profit

This wave of losses primarily stems from continually decreasing product prices and declining sell prices below industry cash cost, significantly impacting inventory valuation.

In the face of serious pressuring conditions, a recurring theme has emerged: the larger the production scale, the greater the financial losses incurredBy the end of the third quarter of the previous year, four of the top five performing companies in the A-share solar segment were bracing for drastic losses, highlighting severe repercussions across the industryDespite these clear signs of distress, there remains a sliver of hope as companies gear up for Q1 performance announcements—optimistically hoping for signs of recovery in an otherwise dismal landscape for the solar sector in the first half of 2025. Failure to witness improvement in pricing, especially in modules, could escalate pressures on manufacturers, signaling that time is running short for many in the photovoltaics domain.